Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4728 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4728 ATL 06:33 → DAL 07:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 671 ATL 17:31 → DAL 18:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4728 Southwest	ATL 06:33	DAL 07:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DAL 09:21	7%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 205 Southwest	ATL 12:11	DAL 13:26	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	DAL 11:24	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	DAL 15:03	13%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	16%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 671 Southwest	ATL 17:31	DAL 18:45	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON