Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4707 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 4707 ATL 06:01 → DCA 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 832 ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4707 Republic	ATL 06:01	DCA 08:05	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 5306 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 08:54	DCA 10:46	10%	5%	1.6%	93%
WN 1357 Southwest	ATL 11:11	DCA 13:03	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	ATL 11:01	DCA 12:54	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 10:59	DCA 12:47	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4735 Republic	ATL 20:27	DCA 22:29	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 13:56	DCA 15:58	14%	5%	0.7%	21%
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 16:44	DCA 18:54	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	20%	4%	0.7%	72%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	22%	6%	0.7%	58%
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	22%	7%	0.7%	65%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	23%	7%	0.7%	60%
WN 1358 Southwest	ATL 16:31	DCA 18:24	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	25%	7%	0.7%	57%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	25%	7%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON