Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 211 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 211 ATL 06:17 → DEN 07:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 215 ATL 18:44 → DEN 19:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 211 Southwest	ATL 06:17	DEN 07:31	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 08:53	DEN 10:28	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	10%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:12	DEN 09:21	11%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	DEN 11:05	11%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	12%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 212 Southwest	ATL 13:25	DEN 14:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	15%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	16%	3%	0.5%	69%
UA 609 United	ATL 16:41	DEN 18:17	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	17%	3%	0.5%	70%
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	18%	5%	0.8%	69%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:02	DEN 16:09	18%	3%	0.5%	79%
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DEN 22:05	21%	8%	0.8%	64%
WN 215 Southwest	ATL 18:44	DEN 19:54	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON