Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2770 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2770 ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 17:15 → DFW 18:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2770 American Flight history →	ATL 06:01	DFW 07:33	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	DFW 11:12	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DFW 08:54	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	10%	4%	0.8%	87%
F9 3021 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:28	DFW 06:59	12%	7%	0.8%	69%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	DFW 12:44	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 820 American Flight history →	ATL 11:03	DFW 12:32	14%	6%	0.7%	84%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DFW 22:11	14%	4%	0.7%	55%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	ATL 13:29	DFW 14:58	15%	6%	0.7%	83%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	ATL 14:56	DFW 16:25	16%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 1827 Delta	ATL 17:45	DFW 19:05	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:10	DFW 17:27	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 2403 American Flight history →	ATL 20:16	DFW 21:44	19%	7%	0.8%	59%
AA 1008 American Flight history →	ATL 16:16	DFW 17:45	20%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 2398 American	ATL 17:27	DFW 18:56	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:36	DFW 12:05	22%	10%	0.8%	64%
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:15	DFW 18:46	31%	12%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON