Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1646 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1646 ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2898 ATL 11:29 → DTW 13:33 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1646 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	DTW 08:54	5%	1%	0.4%	92%
DL 643 Delta	ATL 08:21	DTW 10:21	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1240 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	DTW 12:56	10%	2%	0.4%	85%
DL 1298 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	DTW 11:10	11%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 1031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:47	DTW 15:42	12%	2%	0.4%	85%
DL 1478 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:11	DTW 20:13	15%	4%	0.4%	76%
DL 1005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:28	DTW 17:27	15%	3%	0.4%	79%
DL 1262 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:11	DTW 21:11	16%	4%	0.4%	69%
DL 2067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:11	DTW 19:14	17%	4%	0.4%	76%
F9 2898 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:29	DTW 13:33	18%	7%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON