tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:15 ELP 13:20 12% 2% 0.6% 84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:39 ELP 20:50 20% 4% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 2h 34m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 6h 46m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ELP 11:41AA 1658 7h 40m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 58m Denver DEN 11:26 → ELP 13:29UA 2128 6h 36m 88% 75%
UnitedDetails → ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa 2h 34m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 04m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47UA 425 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 48m 94% 73%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:03 → DFW 12:32AA 820 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:37 → ELP 15:33AA 1681 6h 30m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → ATL 13:29 → DFW 14:58AA 1276 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:01 → ELP 18:57AA 555 7h 28m 95% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON