Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 299 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 299 ATL 06:12 → EWR 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1158 ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 299 United Flight history →	ATL 06:12	EWR 08:30	4%	2%	1.3%	91%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:10	EWR 09:24	6%	2%	1.2%	83%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:18	EWR 10:29	8%	2%	1.1%	87%
UA 2289 United Flight history →	ATL 09:40	EWR 12:09	9%	4%	1.0%	90%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	EWR 12:21	13%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 554 United Flight history →	ATL 10:57	EWR 13:19	15%	7%	1.0%	82%
F9 2282 Frontier	ATL 08:11	EWR 10:40	15%	7%	1.6%	no record
DL 8883 Delta	ATL 11:02	EWR 13:15	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:02	EWR 14:16	23%	8%	1.1%	72%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	EWR 15:24	25%	9%	1.0%	76%
UA 2247 United Flight history →	ATL 18:15	EWR 20:37	28%	13%	1.0%	63%
UA 758 United	ATL 15:07	EWR 17:27	29%	14%	1.0%	no record
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	EWR 22:29	32%	11%	1.0%	65%
UA 1152 United Flight history →	ATL 19:37	EWR 22:04	32%	11%	0.9%	65%
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:54	33%	16%	0.9%	66%
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	35%	13%	1.1%	56%
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	40%	23%	1.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON