tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2615 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:16 FSD 19:56 10% 4% 0.4% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest 8h 30m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:03 → DFW 12:32AA 820 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:06 → FSD 17:16AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 7h 13m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:59 → FSD 12:18AA 2872 7h 17m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → ATL 14:56 → DFW 16:25AA 3104 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:49 → FSD 21:58AA 2937 8h 02m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 1h 19m Chicago ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet 5h 35m 88% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON