Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3089 ATL 08:15 → GSP 09:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1021 ATL 17:55 → GSP 18:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	GSP 09:13	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	GSP 10:57	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:16	GSP 12:14	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:07	GSP 14:01	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:07	GSP 16:07	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	GSP 18:55	14%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON