tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 837 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:50 HNL 13:20 22% 6% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646 1h 36m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 07m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 13h 28m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 18m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → ATL 11:18 → SEA 13:29DL 629 3h 10m Seattle SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59DL 419 14h 41m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 12h 04m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → HNL 14:16AA 693 12h 28m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5 14h 25m 99% 66%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 1h 32m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 20m 97% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ATL 13:48 → SEA 15:53DL 481 46m Seattle SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59DL 419 12h 11m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON