Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 222 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 ATL 06:11 → HOU 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4748 ATL 20:36 → HOU 21:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest	ATL 06:11	HOU 07:20	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 175 Southwest	ATL 09:51	HOU 10:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	HOU 12:10	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 3573 Southwest	ATL 15:16	HOU 16:26	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4748 Southwest	ATL 20:36	HOU 21:43	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON