Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2973 ATL 09:39 → HPN 12:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 1616 ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:39	HPN 12:21	8%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1616 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	HPN 22:25	12%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:25	HPN 09:49	11%	3%	2.9%	89%
DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 12:00	HPN 14:28	27%	12%	2.5%	73%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:33	HPN 18:03	27%	13%	4.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON