Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3036 ATL 08:05 → HSV 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3065 ATL 17:47 → HSV 17:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	HSV 08:03	4%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:05	HSV 09:02	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:58	HSV 12:02	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:29	HSV 15:29	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	HSV 19:00	10%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 3065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:47	HSV 17:51	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 4762 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 13:21	HSV 13:23	27%	11%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON