Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1159 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1159 ATL 05:39 → IAD 07:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4410 ATL 14:52 → IAD 16:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1159 United	ATL 05:39	IAD 07:42	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	IAD 09:26	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 632 United Flight history →	ATL 09:45	IAD 11:48	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 8965 Delta	ATL 11:09	IAD 13:06	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	IAD 11:37	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	IAD 14:01	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2131 United	ATL 19:36	IAD 21:40	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1831 United Flight history →	ATL 14:41	IAD 16:35	12%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 2902 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	IAD 18:30	15%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	IAD 16:46	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 1309 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	IAD 21:03	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 4410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:52	IAD 16:40	26%	11%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON