Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 532 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 532 ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1131 ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 532 United Flight history →	ATL 07:05	IAH 08:15	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IAH 08:35	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	IAH 11:14	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	IAH 13:33	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 425 United Flight history →	ATL 11:37	IAH 12:47	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
F9 1403 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:07	IAH 07:20	14%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 1284 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	IAH 21:24	14%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	IAH 15:52	16%	4%	0.6%	68%
DL 2327 Delta	ATL 19:01	IAH 20:08	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2399 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:45	IAH 10:03	17%	6%	0.7%	79%
DL 1131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	IAH 17:31	19%	5%	0.6%	59%
UA 3992 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:57	IAH 17:23	28%	16%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON