Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3125 ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2979 ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IND 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	IND 10:33	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:27	IND 19:07	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	IND 22:27	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	IND 19:10	16%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON