tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 315 at 18:10, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 315 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:10 JAC 20:04 15% 3% 0.8% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 3h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 15:39 → JAC 16:47DL 509 8h 37m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 8h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 6h 00m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327 3h 52m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 8h 43m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:19 → JAC 10:11AA 1923 6h 10m 90% 73%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 2h 02m Chicago ORD 16:43 → JAC 19:05UA 1987 7h 47m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883 8h 37m 98% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON