Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2328 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2328 ATL 07:25 → JAX 08:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1550 ATL 17:54 → JAX 19:23 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	JAX 08:36	5%	1%	0.7%	89%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	JAX 09:36	6%	1%	0.7%	89%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:48	JAX 12:00	10%	2%	10.0%	87%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	JAX 15:09	13%	2%	1.0%	81%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:37	JAX 13:45	13%	2%	1.0%	80%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	JAX 16:27	15%	3%	1.4%	78%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:51	JAX 19:13	17%	4%	0.9%	64%
DL 2440 Delta	ATL 16:42	JAX 17:57	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2265 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	JAX 21:13	18%	4%	0.7%	71%
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:54	JAX 19:23	25%	9%	1.4%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON