Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2420 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2420 ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 520 ATL 19:04 → JFK 21:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2420 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:42	JFK 10:00	5%	1%	0.7%	90%
DL 1034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:44	JFK 12:00	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	JFK 13:20	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 1575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	JFK 16:29	16%	5%	0.6%	77%
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:33	JFK 21:53	18%	5%	0.6%	70%
F9 4732 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	JFK 11:50	20%	7%	1.1%	74%
B6 1520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 10:10	JFK 12:32	20%	9%	1.1%	74%
B6 120 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:15	JFK 16:40	26%	15%	1.1%	68%
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 19:04	JFK 21:30	35%	16%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON