Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 233 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 233 ATL 06:57 → LAS 08:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1854 ATL 19:56 → LAS 21:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 233 Southwest	ATL 06:57	LAS 08:14	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	8%	2%	0.4%	86%
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	12%	3%	0.4%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:02	13%	3%	0.4%	80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:15	LAS 14:18	16%	4%	0.4%	80%
DL 919 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:28	LAS 19:40	17%	6%	0.4%	76%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:54	LAS 17:10	18%	6%	0.5%	81%
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	LAS 17:52	19%	6%	0.4%	78%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:34	LAS 19:42	19%	6%	0.5%	63%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:46	LAS 10:10	21%	7%	1.2%	70%
WN 1854 Southwest	ATL 19:56	LAS 21:30	26%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON