Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 763 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 763 ATL 07:00 → LAX 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 2221 ATL 17:30 → LAX 19:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	LAX 08:48	8%	2%	0.5%	68%
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	9%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	10%	3%	0.4%	85%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	11%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	12%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	12%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	LAX 17:26	12%	4%	0.4%	69%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:48	LAX 20:16	13%	4%	0.5%	89%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:05	LAX 12:01	14%	6%	1.0%	74%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	15%	4%	0.4%	77%
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	19%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 17:30	LAX 19:15	20%	7%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521	6h 30m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	56m Nashville	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	6h 16m	86%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	1h 06m Las Vegas	LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696	6h 24m	92%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON