Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 404 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 404 ATL 06:00 → LGA 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3454 ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:51 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 404 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:00	LGA 08:10	6%	2%	1.1%	92%
YX 4809 Republic	ATL 06:11	LGA 08:43	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	10%	2%	1.0%	91%
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	12%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:04	LGA 14:34	16%	6%	1.2%	77%
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	17%	3%	0.8%	85%
YX 4612 Republic	ATL 09:37	LGA 12:08	17%	4%	1.4%	no record
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	18%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	19%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	22%	8%	0.8%	63%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	23%	6%	0.8%	78%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	25%	7%	0.7%	73%
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	26%	9%	0.8%	64%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	28%	9%	0.8%	67%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	29%	9%	0.8%	71%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 15:31	LGA 18:01	29%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 19:20	LGA 21:51	30%	11%	1.7%	57%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	30%	10%	0.8%	68%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 16:56	LGA 19:26	34%	12%	1.8%	50%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	43%	23%	2.9%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	47%	21%	2.2%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON