Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 866 at 10:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 866 ATL 10:36 → MCI 11:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1130 ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 866 Southwest	ATL 10:36	MCI 11:54	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MCI 09:38	7%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	MCI 11:11	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	MCI 12:18	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:24	MCI 14:29	12%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	MCI 16:30	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:38	MCI 21:52	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1470 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	MCI 18:55	18%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 1130 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	MCI 20:56	19%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON