Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 236 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 236 ATL 08:05 → MCO 09:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 15:31 → MCO 17:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 236 Southwest	ATL 08:05	MCO 09:37	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 223 Southwest	ATL 11:56	MCO 13:31	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:28	MCO 08:09	11%	4%	1.0%	79%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	13%	4%	1.0%	73%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	MCO 14:30	15%	4%	1.0%	77%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	17%	5%	2.3%	63%
F9 4556 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:50	MCO 11:27	18%	7%	0.8%	79%
WN 239 Southwest	ATL 19:26	MCO 21:01	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	MCO 19:48	19%	6%	0.7%	57%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	19%	6%	2.8%	57%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	21%	6%	0.8%	62%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	21%	6%	1.7%	59%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:53	21%	5%	0.7%	61%
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:31	MCO 17:08	26%	13%	4.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON