Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 240 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 240 ATL 08:01 → MDW 09:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2779 ATL 17:06 → MDW 18:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 240 Southwest	ATL 08:01	MDW 09:12	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 241 Southwest	ATL 11:16	MDW 12:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:09	MDW 10:05	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MDW 11:56	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 2866 Southwest	ATL 14:06	MDW 15:17	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	MDW 16:15	12%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 309 Southwest	ATL 17:59	MDW 19:11	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2779 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:06	MDW 18:24	26%	13%	1.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON