Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2836 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2836 ATL 07:30 → MIA 09:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 18:30 → MIA 20:37 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	MIA 09:30	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	9%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	11%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 1912 American	ATL 08:18	MIA 10:24	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MIA 13:02	14%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 10:47	MIA 12:53	15%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	16%	4%	0.8%	84%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:33	MIA 10:40	18%	5%	1.1%	74%
DL 1234 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	MIA 23:39	19%	7%	1.0%	65%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:33	MIA 15:31	21%	5%	0.7%	63%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	24%	7%	0.7%	63%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	26%	8%	0.8%	66%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 18:47	MIA 20:53	26%	9%	1.1%	62%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 16:25	MIA 18:23	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 3442 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:40	MIA 15:49	28%	12%	1.0%	51%
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:30	MIA 20:37	32%	15%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON