Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3128 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 3128 ATL 07:35 → MSY 08:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1371 ATL 15:24 → MSY 16:07 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	MSY 08:04	4%	1%	0.7%	94%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:58	MSY 09:29	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MSY 11:37	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	MSY 14:17	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	MSY 15:57	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 678 Delta	ATL 17:48	MSY 18:24	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1450 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	MSY 20:28	15%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 1393 Southwest	ATL 16:41	MSY 17:18	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 1371 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:24	MSY 16:07	23%	11%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON