Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1178 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 1178 ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2879 ATL 17:20 → ORD 18:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	ORD 08:35	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 1955 United	ATL 08:08	ORD 09:25	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1762 American	ATL 07:29	ORD 08:52	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	12%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 1288 United	ATL 11:19	ORD 12:39	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1041 American	ATL 10:47	ORD 12:08	14%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:22	ORD 12:34	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:18	ORD 14:41	17%	7%	0.7%	81%
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	ORD 07:53	17%	6%	1.5%	73%
AA 2620 American	ATL 12:07	ORD 13:28	17%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:02	ORD 14:14	20%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:11	ORD 20:35	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	21%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 3059 American	ATL 14:11	ORD 15:32	21%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 2096 American	ATL 20:10	ORD 21:31	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	24%	8%	0.9%	62%
UA 1850 United	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:33	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ORD 20:51	27%	6%	0.7%	60%
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 16:54	ORD 18:15	32%	11%	1.1%	75%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:23	ORD 19:53	32%	15%	1.4%	57%
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	34%	8%	0.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON