Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1336 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1336 ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3072 ATL 09:28 → ORF 11:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:31	ORF 09:09	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	ORF 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:28	ORF 14:16	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	ORF 15:50	11%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2731 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:42	ORF 22:30	12%	4%	0.6%	68%
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	14%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	ORF 18:54	15%	4%	0.6%	69%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:28	ORF 11:15	15%	7%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON