Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 691 ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:27	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	10%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	PDX 18:56	12%	4%	0.5%	74%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:50	PDX 21:51	13%	3%	0.5%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 55m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 23m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	7h 13m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON