Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3270 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 17:02 → PHL 19:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:00	PHL 08:10	5%	3%	1.1%	93%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	6%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	7%	3%	1.2%	91%
YX 4755 Republic	ATL 10:03	PHL 12:24	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 8885 Delta	ATL 11:32	PHL 13:43	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 844 American	ATL 12:29	PHL 14:49	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:23	PHL 22:33	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	PHL 07:15	14%	5%	1.5%	71%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	16%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	16%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	17%	5%	0.7%	65%
AA 2405 American	ATL 18:19	PHL 20:39	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3083 American Flight history →	ATL 14:03	PHL 16:23	18%	6%	0.7%	59%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	19%	5%	0.7%	62%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	PHL 19:20	35%	16%	0.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON