Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2983 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2983 ATL 07:16 → PHX 08:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 493 ATL 20:41 → PHX 21:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2983 Southwest	ATL 07:16	PHX 08:17	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	9%	2%	0.4%	81%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	10%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	13%	2%	0.4%	81%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	15%	3%	0.4%	83%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:36	PHX 21:34	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2064 American	ATL 18:16	PHX 19:34	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	20%	5%	0.4%	73%
WN 493 Southwest	ATL 20:41	PHX 21:44	21%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON