Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1283 ATL 09:56 → PIT 11:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3122 ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1283 Southwest	ATL 09:56	PIT 11:48	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	PIT 10:45	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:08	PIT 15:50	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:14	PIT 23:00	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:57	PIT 18:47	13%	4%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON