Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3103 ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3021 ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PNS 08:17	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:39	PNS 10:51	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:50	PNS 13:00	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	PNS 15:13	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:48	PNS 17:03	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 3021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	PNS 20:04	13%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON