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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2479 at 10:20, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2479 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:20 PWM 13:00 13% 2% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298 2h 55m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 6h 41m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646 1h 06m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 4h 55m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:12 → EWR 08:30UA 299 3h 29m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 7h 13m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATL 06:00 → LGA 08:10DL 404 2h 50m New York LGA 11:00 → PWM 12:32DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor 6h 32m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:54 → DCA 10:46AA 5306 · flown by PSA 3h 51m Washington DCA 14:37 → PWM 16:32AA 1423 7h 38m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00DL 2420 2h 45m New York JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 6h 37m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 3h 27m Chicago ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401 8h 23m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:03 → DFW 12:32AA 820 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → PWM 19:10AA 2312 8h 07m 92% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON