Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2634 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 2634 ATL 07:25 → RDU 08:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1168 ATL 11:14 → RDU 12:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2634 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	RDU 08:53	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:43	RDU 10:10	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:02	RDU 11:35	6%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:12	RDU 12:42	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:52	RDU 16:20	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:05	RDU 14:30	9%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:48	RDU 17:22	11%	3%	0.5%	79%
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:18	RDU 18:54	13%	3%	0.5%	74%
DL 1518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	RDU 20:57	14%	3%	0.6%	74%
F9 1168 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:14	RDU 12:56	17%	6%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON