Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1462 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1462 ATL 07:36 → RIC 09:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1348 ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1462 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:36	RIC 09:12	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	RIC 11:56	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:32	RIC 14:15	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:46	RIC 16:23	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1263 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:33	RIC 20:16	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:12	RIC 18:53	14%	3%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON