Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:57	RNO 21:42	20%	5%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 54m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	2h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	98%	82%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	3h 42m Denver	DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604	9h 26m	99%	82%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911	7h 10m	98%	80%
American Details →	ATL 07:48 → PHX 09:00AA 1777	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:27AA 1437	7h 39m	95%	79%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → RNO 13:17AA 324	7h 55m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON