Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2511 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:23	ROC 11:31	10%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2047 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	ROC 17:20	19%	4%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATL 09:45 → IAD 11:48UA 632	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet	4h 33m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 06:00 → LGA 08:10DL 404	2h 09m New York	LGA 10:19 → ROC 11:53DL 5340 · flown by Endeavor	5h 53m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298	3h 15m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 28m	100%	71%
American Details →	ATL 16:22 → CLT 17:35AA 5175 · flown by PSA	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 20:38 → ROC 22:27AA 3155	6h 05m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	3h 30m New York	JFK 16:50 → ROC 18:41DL 5299 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	99%	70%
American Details →	ATL 08:13 → CLT 09:26AA 5063 · flown by PSA	48m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	4h 01m	76%	69%
United Details →	ATL 15:30 → ORD 16:57UA 516	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22UA 1568	5h 52m	87%	63%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:30 → LGA 11:43DL 557	3h 47m New York	LGA 15:30 → ROC 17:08DL 5343 · flown by Endeavor	7h 38m	99%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON