Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 629 ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 218 ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 629 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	SEA 14:50	11%	2%	0.4%	82%
DL 774 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	SEA 12:13	11%	2%	0.4%	84%
DL 444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	SEA 09:54	11%	2%	0.4%	82%
DL 481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:38	SEA 16:49	13%	3%	0.4%	80%
AS 377 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 07:03	SEA 09:12	15%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	SEA 19:05	16%	4%	0.4%	70%
DL 714 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SEA 20:11	18%	4%	0.4%	67%
AS 348 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 08:54	SEA 11:20	19%	3%	0.6%	69%
AS 218 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 16:18	SEA 18:46	20%	5%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 43m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 34m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	52m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 16m	89%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON