Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 571 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1447 ATL 16:55 → SFO 19:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 06:30	SFO 08:35	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	SFO 10:20	14%	3%	0.4%	81%
DL 750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	SFO 14:50	18%	4%	0.4%	73%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	SFO 11:33	19%	4%	0.4%	70%
UA 356 United	ATL 19:28	SFO 21:28	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SFO 19:57	21%	7%	0.4%	51%
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	SFO 17:31	22%	7%	0.4%	66%
DL 681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:34	SFO 21:27	27%	7%	0.4%	58%
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	30%	16%	0.8%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	7h 16m	94%	71%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	57m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 59m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	1h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:25DL 689	7h 10m	94%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON