Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3507 ATL 11:21 → SHV 12:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4111 ATL 15:41 → SHV 16:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3507 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 11:21	SHV 12:11	12%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 3505 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 19:05	SHV 19:52	14%	6%	0.7%	62%
DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 15:41	SHV 16:34	14%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 5302 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:55	SHV 09:48	14%	2%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON