Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3196 ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3109 ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	4%	1%	0.8%	94%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	SRQ 11:44	7%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 1057 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SRQ 22:52	8%	3%	1.1%	71%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:42	SRQ 15:20	9%	2%	0.9%	80%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	SRQ 17:17	10%	3%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON