Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 255 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 255 ATL 07:06 → STL 07:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4816 ATL 20:16 → STL 21:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 255 Southwest	ATL 07:06	STL 07:57	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	STL 08:19	6%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:04	STL 09:43	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:40	STL 12:17	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 244 Southwest	ATL 13:33	STL 14:23	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:17	STL 16:06	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2833 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:16	STL 20:05	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:10	STL 17:53	15%	3%	0.6%	79%
WN 4816 Southwest	ATL 20:16	STL 21:06	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON