Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2605 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2605 ATL 07:25 → TPA 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2912 ATL 17:14 → TPA 18:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:38	TPA 10:07	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 1837 Southwest	ATL 10:31	TPA 12:08	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:03	TPA 15:35	14%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	16%	4%	0.7%	70%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	TPA 17:59	18%	4%	0.6%	74%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	18%	7%	0.8%	72%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	18%	5%	0.6%	66%
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 19:58	TPA 21:30	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	20%	5%	0.6%	69%
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	TPA 18:52	27%	12%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON