tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 937 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:59 TUS 12:35 10% 2% 0.6% 87%
DL 1251 Delta Flight history → ATL 21:05 TUS 21:49 13% 3% 0.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 3h 25m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 9h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → TUS 11:24AA 2187 8h 23m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa 2h 37m Houston IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 1h 02m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 6h 39m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 7h 04m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → TUS 12:22UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 8h 52m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON