Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1817 ATL 08:32 → TYS 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2571 ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1817 Delta	ATL 08:32	TYS 09:35	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	TYS 11:10	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:52	TYS 14:48	11%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 3042 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	TYS 18:44	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:16	TYS 17:16	15%	3%	0.7%	70%
DL 4724 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 12:17	TYS 13:16	20%	7%	0.0%	80%
DL 5203 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:06	TYS 20:08	27%	13%	1.2%	73%
DL 5224 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:44	TYS 21:49	33%	14%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON