Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3051 ATL 08:20 → VPS 08:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2170 ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	VPS 08:31	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	VPS 10:29	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:35	VPS 20:49	9%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 2803 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:28	VPS 18:42	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:50	VPS 14:00	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2170 Delta	ATL 15:44	VPS 16:01	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON