Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:31, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:31	ATL 08:43	5%	3%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 16:44 → ATL 20:23DL 2021	7h 56m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	4h 19m	94%	85%
American Details →	ATW 05:32 → ORD 06:42AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 08:37 → ATL 11:47AA 851	5h 15m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	5h 51m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	5h 14m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	7h 04m	92%	81%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → ATL 15:26UA 2779	6h 11m	94%	79%
American Details →	ATW 05:59 → DFW 08:36AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:01 → ATL 14:31AA 3104	7h 32m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	4h 57m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON