Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1248 at 08:57, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1248 United	ATW 08:57	DEN 10:55	8%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	7h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 34m	96%	84%
American Details →	ATW 05:32 → ORD 06:42AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:27AA 2363	6h 55m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 05m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	7h 18m	96%	79%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → DEN 14:53UA 2809	7h 38m	100%	79%
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:17 → DEN 22:05UA 329	7h 21m	95%	76%
American Details →	ATW 05:59 → DFW 08:36AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	6h 47m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974	5h 38m	71%	54%
United Details →	ATW 12:31 → ORD 13:43UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	5h 00m	58%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON